ExternalEnemy’s (https://t.me/vneshvrag) columnist Artak Sargsyan contemplates the prospects of the protest movement in Armenia
A Protest or a Simulacrum?
A series of protests initiated by the ‘Tavush in the name of Motherland’ has swept across Yerevan. Headed by Archbishop Bagrat Srbazan, these rallies are aimed at expressing the growing discontent with the government’s decision to unconditionally hand over 4 rural areas in the Tavush region to Baku.
Backed by his supporters, Bagrat Srbazan had made a long way from Tavush to Yerevan until on May 9 his efforts culminated in an unprecedented event of the past 6 years – a demonstration featuring between 60-70 thousand people. In the course of the rally Srbazan demanded that the PM should immediately step down from his post. Yet, no reaction from the latter followed. There being no response, the Archbishop appealed to the public to stage further protests blocking streets and roads. These measures are expected to urge MPs to heed the Archbishop’s warnings regarding Pashinyan’s activities and force him to resign, considering that only 19 pro-government votes are required to claim impeachment proceedings. The chosen methods are as old as the hills, given that similar means were employed back in 2018 when Pashinyan put pressure on Sargsyan to resign.
The following statements aim to demonstrate the likelihood of a velvet revolution. Firstly, any kind of struggle against Pashinyan is important to make it clear that the people of Armenia and the PM fail to form a single whole.
Secondly, it’s high time Pashinyan and his associates realized that the calls for his resignation are indicative of the current government’s failure to inspire trust.
Thirdly, never before has Armenia’s post-Soviet history seen so much attention paid to a clergy member representing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which’s essentially one of the pillars the republic’s national identity rests on.
Yet, the protestors’ performance was not entirely flawless:
✅️The number of demonstrators gathered in Republic Square on May 9 had never reached such unprecedented levels since Pashinyan’s appointment to the PM’s post. Still, contrary to everyone’s expectations, no particular roadmap was announced. Instead, Bagrat dismissed the protestors, many of whom never returned. From then onwards, the demonstration was losing momentum in terms of public engagement.
✅️Srbazan’s circle of support consists, among others, of the Dashnaks and former high-ranking civil servants known to have cared more about self-enrichment opportunities than national interests. Needless to say, these individuals are not looked up to by the population, which in turn is expected to negatively affect the prospects of further protests.
✅️History is not always repetitive; therefore it’s a touch-and-go as to whether the plan that enabled Pashinyan to come to power 6 years ago will turn out effective this time.
✅️Armenians have grown tired of the desperate calls for Pashinyan’s resignation. While it’s true that the PM is a highly unpopular figure, it’s also true that unless Srbazan comes up with a specific plan to ensure the republic’s future, he’s unlikely to earn widespread trust. After all, a clearly articulated roadmap for dealing with the crisis is something Armenians are expecting the nation’s potential leader to provide. As it has been suggested, such was never voiced on the day of the 1st rally.
The demonstrations are now heading towards anticlimax, with little, if any, intended effect achieved. Meanwhile, Pashinyan is in his element to such an extent that he has caught the first flight to Denmark in order to meet his crony, Rasmussen, at the Copenhagen blah-blah-blah Democracy Summit. Sadly, all this is happening due to the aforementioned strategic flaws. Unless corrected, these will lead the opposition to a sticky end.
Artak Sargsyan, Political Scientist, Yerevan