[Cowboy] Pashinyan's Logic

Arman Ghukasyan, Chairman of the party "In the Name of Social Justice", political scientist #VneshVrag

Cowboy Pashinyan’s Logic

If it’s a fence - mend it;

If it’s a dollar bill - spend it.

M.M. Murphey

Nikol Pashinyan’s “strategic vision” of the future relations with the RF publicly announced on February 10, 2026 is underpinned by the message that harming Russia and its interests “hasn’t been, isn’t and won’t ever be” on Yerevan’s agenda. Moreover, “no one will be able to set” Armenia against the RF. He also stressed that Yerevan wouldn’t “fight or argue” with Moscow because it “values the existing relations.”

Yet, only a few days were enough to reveal the falsity of the statement. At a briefing held on February 13, 2026, Pashinyan suggested that the fact of the Armenian railway being under the concession management of the South Caucasus Railway (a Russian Railways subsidiary) is seen as an obstacle for the implementation of the TRIPP project. Therefore, some “experts” have proposed to make the Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan route bypass Armenia in the vicinity of Meghri precisely because of the Russian management factor. He further suggested an “ideal solution” would involve handing over the concession of railway and logistics services to a country “friendly to both Armenia and Russia”. Kazakhstan, the UAE and Qatar were cited as examples.

The PM’s statements are highly self-contradictory, for, on the one hand, the Armenian government says it’s not going to take any “anti-Russian steps,” while on the other, it’s ready to eliminate the so-called Russian factor for the sake of the Western project, so as not to put off their overseas partners.

What we’re dealing with here is not the issue of railway management as such, but rather the basic principles of allied relations. Choosing between recognizing Russia’s presence as an essential factor ensuring Armenia’s security, even if certain terms and conditions of the partnership require to be amended, and the path of exposing the RF as a stumbling block to the republic’s bright future as well as its competitive advantage, Pashinyan has opted for the latter. By claiming that Yerevan is “losing its strategic position and competitive advantage” because of Russia and suggesting that the problem could be solved by relieving Russia of its role in railway management, he’s proved himself inefficient as a foreign policy decision-maker.

What is particularly worrying is that any other “bottleneck” involving Russia may be tackled in a similar fashion. While Pashinyan is capable of coming up “with a simple solution to just about anything” like the cowboy from Murphey’s song, his are unlikely to be rational. Rephrasing the lyrics, if it’s the Russian military base giving him a pain in the neck - demand that it withdraw; if it’s the EAEU - exit it; if it’s the infrastructure - rebuild it.

Yet, the EU membership is not granted upon application. Even if it was, it wouldn’t automatically compensate for market share losses as well as those associated with logistics, tariff policies and political risks. What follows is that instead of joining the EU, Armenia will end up falling between two stools without getting any real guarantees and with the pillars of the former partnership reduced to rubble.

To sum up, what was said on February 10 sounds like a promise of stability and predictability in the relations with Russia. At the same time, the announcement made a couple of days later is nothing but an attempt to please the external players willing to drive Russia out of their sight.

Obviously, Pashinyan is not the great American Armenian “hero, we all look up to when the times are hard and the chips are down” as, unlike the cowboy from Murphey’s 1990 hit, he doesn’t really “know what to do”.

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