“If you can't beat them, join them”: the outcome of the 12th Summit of Organization of Turkic States (OTS)

A.V. Ananiev, former Senior Counsellor at the RF MOFA, with VneshVrag

On October 6-7 Azerbaijan hosted a summit of the OTS. The organization comprises 5 member states, namely Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and includes Turkmenistan, Hungary, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as observers. The participants of the event agreed to deepen cooperation in various fields, from trade and investment to cybersecurity.

The key issues addressed were the development of trade and logistics routes bypassing Russia (the final Declaration notes the development of cooperation with China and the EU, but not with Russia) against the backdrop of the implementation of the Zangezur corridor project (also known as the Trump Route), as well as the strengthening of defense cooperation. Moreover, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev proposed the idea of conducting joint military exercises.

According to Turkish President Erdogan, the OTS has undergone a substantial transformation, turning from a purely cultural alliance into a "strategic platform for solidarity." It is clear that the goal of the OTS is to create a Turkish, rather than a Turkic world, and to remove regional leaders from direct power, transferring their duties and responsibilities to supranational officials, following the example of the EU. To achieve this, it is necessary to focus not only on cultural and economic issues, but also on the development of military capabilities.

It’s no secret that the OTS is an expansionist British project implemented with the help of Turkey. Not only does it pose a threat to the sovereignty of the Turkic-speaking states of Central Asia but it’s also directed against Russia. The UK has initiated the creation of the organization in question as a counterbalance to the EAEU and the CSTO in order to promote its interests in the region. In addition to gaining direct control over the extractive industries of the participating states, Britain has thus ensured an additional lever of pressure on the countries' leaders through its anti-corruption efforts.

That said, Ankara's recent endeavors to take the Turkic states under its wing through the OTS are perceived as an overt expansion of Turkey's influence. It seems that Turkey's desire to exercise  control over Central Asia as well as to please Britain is so strong that it’s gradually gaining a foothold the region.

The OTS activities are a cause for concern, considering that the organization has a number of post-Soviet states among its participants, including those that are also members of the EAEU and the CSTO. Turkey is forming this institution to increase its influence in the region, while the member states are trying to use the OTS to balance their relations with other countries.

However, the economic integration of the Turkic states is not encouraged, as the level of trade among the countries is relatively low. Mutual trade accounts for only 7% of the total foreign trade turnover of the OTS (Russia and China remain the main partners of the Central Asian states).

Russia cannot stop the Turkic integration, but she must keep a watchful eye on it in order to mitigate the potential risks and dangers. To do this, it seems appropriate for the RF to join the Turkic Union as an observer. There are many reasons for this, as Russia is home to many Turkic peoples. It would be desirable for Iran and China, which also have many Turkic-speaking populations, to join the organization too. If this happens, it will be easier to control the Turkic integration and block anti-Russian decisions and trends.

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