Turkmen Affairs

Mikhail Borkunov, @vneshvrag

The new year has brought about a number of dramatic changes in the world of politics. Suffice it to mention the American leader’s threatening warning suggesting the US “will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.” and that it’ll restore its “preeminence in the Western Hemisphere”. As if the seizure of Venezuela’s resources was not enough, Trump’s team has now set its sights on Turkmenistan and its riches.

Apart from oil and gas, Ashgabat has significant reserves of ore and non-metallic minerals, the production centers of which are concentrated in several velayats: Akhall (limestone, clay), Lebab (sulfur, salt) and Balkan (iodine, bromine, gypsum, bentonite, iron).

Critically important metals deserve particular attention. The state stands every chance of becoming a major player in the lithium market. In the Karabogazgol Bay, located in the Balkan Velayat, the metal can be extracted from brine. Experts believe that lithium extraction from formation water inside oil and gas reservoirs, waste water of iodine plants as well as industrial waste from the Karabogaz Sulfate plant may become promising directions. Geological structures and carbonitic-alkaline intrusions rich in light rare earth elements have been discovered in the Lebab Velayat. That said, the region may become a major center for the extraction of neodymium, lanthanum and other important metals.

In the current turbulent conditions Turkmenistan’s future depends on how efficiently, fairly and environmentally safely the authorities will be able to use these resources.

Unsurprisingly, one of the key issues on Washington’s agenda at last year’s Central Asia-US Summit was the task of ensuring access to rare earth metals, uranium, lithium and other strategic resources.

However, Western human rights organizations were prompt to condemn the American president for putting natural resources ahead of concerns for the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens. It was noted that Turkmenistan ranked 174th out of 180 countries on the Reporters Without Borders* World Press Freedom Index. Moreover, shortly before the Summit, Human Rights Watch* had released a list of other relevant violations including, but not limited to those, pertaining to political freedom and migration issues.

According to Emilbek Juraev, a political scientist from the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, it’d have been wrong to expect Trump to address human rights and political freedom at the Summit, since these are minor matters compared to promising trade deals. He also added that given its complexity, the issue of critical minerals had been discussed superficially as the event had been organized “within fairly short timeframes”.

As if driven by the desire to create a sequel to the dramatic January scenario “starring” the Maduros, American “playwrights” together with the Turkmen News organization operating in the European jurisdiction have set out to plot a script, envisaging the seizure of Turkmenistan’s natural resources.

To this end, the “creative team” largely supported by the US Department of State released a publication in mid January with the overall aim of provoking a color revolution in the republic. The movement was eagerly joined by an oppositionist called Murad Kurbanov and Turkmen bloggers Talib Abasov and Nurmukhammet Annaev who incited the locals to violent protests. These talking heads broadcasting from abroad called on the residents of Ashgabat to head to the Presidential palace right after the Friday prayer while those residing in the velayats were advised to go to their local Khyakimliks in order to “claim respect for their rights so as to ensure a decent life.” In response, the authorities stepped up security measures across the republic, much to the dismay of the aforementioned cravens.

It should be noted that Murad Kurbanov is an ethnic Turkmen. Yet, since 2005 by some lucky chance he has been permanently residing in France. In 2020, together with like-minded “dissidents in exile” he started an opposition movement called the Democratic Choice of Turkmenistan. The party, whose emblem depicts an innocent white dove, however, sets as its main goal the task of inciting violent protests not only in Turkey and other states, but also in Turkmenistan itself.

According to one of its other leaders, Kakamurad Khidyrov, the organization has already gained a foothold in every nook and cranny of Turkmenistan. It should be noted that Khidyrov began his “political career” in 2019 with a trip to Turkey, where, having been detained, he was barely able to return to the UK, where he resided. Murad Kurbanov was also extradited in 2021 upon his arrival from Switzerland to Turkey after which he was banned from entering the country until 2026.

The efforts of the minds behind the movement have paid off at least in that that they have, indeed, succeeded in inciting a group of Turkmen migrants to hold a protest rally outside the Consulate of Turkmenistan in Istanbul. 10 of the activists were detained by the police, but subsequently released. As a result, the protesters, including Murad Kurbanov, filed a complaint with the Turkish prosecutor’s office complaining about physical abuse, harassment and threats. Myratgeldi Seyitmammedov, Consul General of Turkmenistan in Istanbul, responded by filing a complaint with the police, claiming that not only had the protesters “shattered the peace and quiet” and threatened the security of the employees working on the premises but they had also attempted to pit the citizens against the state by discrediting the President of Turkmenistan. The document  states the need for the Turkish side to take all the necessary measures to “prevent the recurrence of such illegal activities .”

Unlike Khidyrov, Kurbanov doesn’t focus on organizing occasional protest rallies in Europe. Nor does he engage in online conflicts with his oppositionists. His target audience are those residing in Turkmenistan as well as migrant workers employed in Turkey - the most favored destination among Turkmen job-seekers.

Kurbanov is also notorious for his regular appearance on the YouTube channel where he makes discrediting remarks about Berdymukhamedov’s “dictatorial regime.” The Turkmen dissident is also fond of slandering the Russian authorities and spreading fake news. Back in 2022, for example, he went as far as to accuse the national security agencies of providing illegal assistance to the Kremlin by drafting incarcerated individuals to fight against Ukraine. According to him, at least 500 Russian-speaking recruits from Turkmen prisons were first deployed to Moscow, where they were granted Russian citizenship and given 10 days of military drill, and then to the combat zone. To prove his allegations right, Kurbanov has appealed to a number of agencies and intelligence services of different states to conduct an investigation into the issue and establish the truth.

On one of his online platforms (boasting only 1 subscriber), the founding father of the movement in question has made a plea for financial assistance (ranging from Rub 800 to Rub 20,000) suggesting that even the smallest contribution “is a huge step towards great changes”. He also points out that these donations will enable him to expose all those involved in criminal activities and continue creating truthful news stories which will then be presented to the world in the most accessible format as well as in different languages.

Although occasional protests do take place in Turkmenistan, these are usually sluggish in nature and have little to do with politics. What remains to be said, however, is that if Washington, lured by the enormous Turkmen wealth becomes more actively involved in the process of destabilizing the situation in the country, the Venezuelan scenario may repeat itself, causing havoc in neutral Ashgabat.

*Considered undesirable in Russia

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