Quote from the interview:
Zelensky is playing his cards right. From the beginning, he wanted to have the initiative in a discussion process. The ball is now in Russia's court. Ukraine and Zelensky are in a much stronger position than two months ago. They are receiving the equipment and budgets necessary to maintain their positions. We are no longer in the situation of near-despair that we were in in the spring with the blocking of American aid, and Europe's difficulties in delivering equipment to Kiev. There is no Russian breakthrough either. Russia is not advancing, according to our intelligence, and its losses are even greater than before. Putin thought that the West would get tired of the war. He thought he could wait for the American elections. But he was wrong.
Absolutely fantastic.
I don't think that Finnish “Intelligence,” or any intelligence agency is this dumb. Well, it simply cannot be. I understand that NAFO are, but they are not the intelligence. MSM might be dumb as well, as they usually get directions on what to write, so only one smart person is enough for the whole editorial office.
But concerning what Stubb said:
They are receiving the equipment and budgets necessary to maintain their positions.
1) Money is not a big deal, as they steal Russian money to compensate themselves for the money they have already given to the Ukraine. And, in general, money is printable. That blind belief that money can solve everything… It has nothing to do with reality. Life is not a computer game, so here we are coming to second point
2) Equipment; As far as I remember, Sellensky has calculated that he needs 138 F-16s. Why that amount – who knows? As to capacities of Western MIC – many experts have already said that all the Western industry cannot produce enough ammunition to supply the Ukraine. Money doesn’t solve this issue. Of course, money helps, but to produce ammunition one must have trained personnel, materials, production lines, etc. Since the USSR fell apart, the West saw no need to maintain the same level of military readiness, and their industry degraded.
Of course, some people may say, “look, they have high-tech equipment that Russia doesn’t have.” Of course, equipment differs, so Russia doesn’t have a direct analogue of HIMARS, but Russian military expertise is old enough to figure out what works best. There are also such parameters that have to be taken into account (let military people forgive me, but I write as a civilian):
- Amount and usability – what is the use of one super-mega-ultra tank, that can be taken out by three lesser tanks? There is no such thing as “Wundervaffe”. Hollywood movies and manga have given people a false idea, that one single superman can save the world. It doesn’t work this way. The Romans have proven this a long time ago. So, it is not only essential to have a good tank, it is essential to have enough tanks in general. Some may argue that Western tanks are superior, but this is questionable. Moreover, any equipment must be usable in certain terrain. It was already noted by professionals that Western tanks, even if they are considered to be good, are simply not suitable for Ukrainian landscapes – black soil and swamps. They are too heavy, and this is only one parameter. So, having red high heel shoes will not help you win a marathon race, though they look fancy.
- Ease of service and repair. I love the saying by Colonel in reserve Vladimir Trukhan: “A specimen becomes native to the army, when adrunk sergeant is able to repar it with a help of crowbar and profane word.” Russian equipment is easy to handle (for a trained person, of course) and reliable, as it is designed for real combat use. On the contrary, the West issued more hi-tech (let’s call it this way) equipment, that is much fewer in numbers, are complicated in service, and are very expensive.
I also have to mention that some “smart people” like to compare the price of Russian ammo vs Western equipment. The thing is that the Russian defense industry is working with very low levels of profit. Because it is the DEFENCE industry and the defense of the country depends on it. The Western MIC is private, and they put profits first. Moreover, Russia has access to required minerals. Even microchips, which Ursula von der Leyen claimed have to be taken out of washing machines stolen from the Ukraine, are produced in Russia. Russia has the capacity to produce chips to cover the needs of the defense industry. So, I don’t really know how “experts” calculate the price of Russian equipment, because sensitive data around this sphere is classified (price is sensitive data), as real analysts must make conclusions about the defensive capabilities of the country based on purchase prices too.
Moreover, there are such terms (translating from Russian directly) as “intelligence information” and “intelligence signs.” Information can be faked, signs – never. So, I don’t really know where people who make conclusions about the costs of a Kinzhal get their data. If that data was accurate, they would not be writing on social media about this. This means, any attempt to express the real price of Kinzhal may be referred to as “intuitive knowledge” or, in other words, guessing.
- Returning to high-tech. Of course, it is better to have professionals comment here, but when preparing this article, fresh data arrived: “A US military official told RIA Novosti that the US recently attempted a hypersonic weapon test launch, but did not specify whether it was successful.” So, apart from Russia, the US still doesn’t have hypersonic missiles. And we all perfectly remember what the British tests of hypersonics ended with. On April 28 UK Defence Journal reported that “It has been reported that the United Kingdom intends to design and deploy its own hypersonic cruise missile by the year 2030”. It is now year 2024! Russia has presented a hypersonic back in 2018, when libtards laughed at “Putin’s cartoons,” but then these “rusty missiles” have taken out mighty Patriot air defense complexes, so, in this sphere, Western supremacy is quite questionable.
Moreover, I have to add something about alloys. Andrei Martianov has spoken about that, and in one of our conversations with Mike Mihajlovic on Black Mountain Talks, we have also covered this topic – Russian metal industry is far ahead of the Western. The US could not copy RD-180 engines, no matter how hard they tried.
Here is the full episode where we were discussing “rocket science” with Mike Mihajlovic. He speaks on alloys at minute 54:31 and onwards:
When speaking about “specimen supplied that Russia doesn’t have,” well, I don’t say these don’t cause trouble on tactical level, but the amount of trouble they cause is not that significant on a strategic level. Russians learn quickly, and their equipment does well, as it was designed for real battles, not for sale.
Also, a cherry on top – on July 30 Insider reported that “Wargames show the US could burn through its ammo in 'as few as 3 to 4 weeks' in a war with China, commission warns” and further:
The 114-page report, published on Monday by a bipartisan commission appointed by Congress, warned urgently that the US is unprepared for a sustained conflict with China or Russia, much less both at the same time.
Many of its assessments were based on previously reported material. Still, the review concentrates a slew of recent findings and dozens of officials' testimonies into a formal and dire recommendation for the US to increase defense spending and streamline its forces.
Ammunition stockpiles are particularly lacking, said the eight-person commission, which included a retired Army general, a former Democratic-party congresswoman, and a former US ambassador.
And after that, Stubb says that the Ukraine gets enough equipment? Who is he trying to fool? Himself?
On “Russia is not advancing,” there is one good quote on that, but rephrasing it, I’ll say that Russia does not need Ukrainian territory. If one listened to what Putin actually said: denazification and demilitarization. Occupation of the Ukraine, no matter how hard West pushes Russia to do it, is not included in SMO plans. So, when Stubb tries to judge Russian military success by rates of advancement – that is OK for NAFO or a housewife, but Stubb is the president of Finland. Among other responsibilities, which are quite limited, as Finland is a unitary parliamentary republic, he is also a Commander-in-chief of the defence forces. So, he is either playing dumb, or is simply trying to sweeten bitter pill.
As to level of losses – that is typical mirroring. Russia doesn’t catch people on the streets to hold the front, but Ukraine does that. People die when trying to cross the Tisa (river). Stubb preferred not to notice that, of course.
To sum up, he is sending a message, that despite “everything is good”, in order to avoid the worst, it is better to start negotiating.
Moreover, speaking about Finnish economy, which was flourishing due to the pragmatism of previous leaders, it has shown “negative growth” due to sanctions. Near-border regions with Russia suffered a lot.
European Commission in the document dated May 15, 2024 reported:
“In 2023, Finland’s real GDP contracted by 1%, as increases in prices and interest rates weighed on consumption and, particularly, on investment, amid weakening sentiment. Inventories also had a large negative contribution. The drop in investment was mainly driven by the construction sector, which has been affected for some time now by slowing housing demand and higher input costs. Government consumption supported domestic demand, given a significant rise in social and healthcare-related spending and wages. In addition, exports fell due to softening external demand. As imports dropped even more sharply, net exports made a positive contribution to growth.
With domestic and external demand set to recover gradually over the forecast horizon, real GDP growth is expected to be close to 0% in 2024 and to increase by 1.4% in 2025.”
I don’t really know why they think that there will be growth, but OK, let it be. Maybe a miracle will happen.
Anyway, the situation looks to be a case of “Help, I’m winning”. And Stubb, who understands what is going on, really needs these peace talks. Although, if he says what thing are actually like, he will be eaten alive by his comrades in EU.
Thanks to Lt.Col. in reserve Oleg Shalandin for checking the military terms and descriptions in this article.
Great Article - Спасибо --Yep, I ran into 3 guys from Finland in Istanbul a few months ago and they were feeling brave about taking on Russia - after a few beers, at a Kafe' I frequent. I didn't tell them that I started working in Ukraine in 08 and retired there in 2012 - and still live in " Old Ukraine " until they stopped "Dreaming". Then after I told them I was in the Американский Army and was in those famous Southeast Asia War Games from 70 - 71 they started listening to this old man. They were doubting everything until I pulled out my - Pass Ports.
Then explained that Russia doesn't have any reason to come to Finland and fight , unless you give them one and , by the way, why did you guys vote to let in all those refugees and immigrants into your nice country.? The subject quickly changed to those no good immigrants and Russia - was off the hook . For awhile anyways.
The propaganda apparatus of the western bankster vassal states may convince their populations, but frontline Ukrainians, citizens undergoing privation, probably not.
Based on Afghanistan the US has decided to replace its service rifle with a more expensive and heavier piece of kit; in the scheme of modern war does that make effective use of resources - I'd say not. As for these monster tanks they were mostly designed to counter Soviet weapons of the seventies and eighties, so there's no excuse about not being optimised for use in Eastern Europe.
No, the main weapon of the west is subversion, corruption/bribery, to be deployed as sanctions and colour revolutions. Russia is the lesson of what happens when plan A fails; no colour revolution and sanctions failures. Wall St/City of London have effectively destroyed the combined west's military capabilities and no focus groups, summits, or BBB type plan will fix that.