Sanctions continue to be ineffective.
Surprise surprise
According to StanChart, the new restrictions roughly triple the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). Whereas it’s highly likely that Russia will try to circumvent the sanctions by employing even more shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, StanChart sees 500kb/d of displacements over the next six months.
Zin Note: So basically, the new sanctions may lower Russian oil exports by about 10%, but the sanctions themselves have caused global oil prices to rise more than 10% since they were announced. Even if the sanctions act as Standard Chartered predicts, Russian oil revenue will be about the same as it was before the sanctions...
In other news, the volume of Russian oil exports fell last year, but overall revenue was higher than in 2023.
